Question: You have three coins. One always comes up heads, one always comes up tails, and one is just a regular coin (has equal change of heads or tails). If you pick one of the coins randomly and flip it twice and get heads twice, what is the chance of flipping heads again?
Answer: 90 percent. If you pick the heads coin the chance of getting the first 2 heads is 100 percent (4/4) and if you pick the fair coin the chance is 25 percent (1/4). So from this, the chance that it is the heads coin is 4/5 and the fair coin 1/5.
Then, if it is the heads coin you will definitely get heads (4/5). If you flip the fair coin it is 1/10 (1/5 * 1/2). Add the probabilities together: 4/5 + 1/10 = 9/10.
Question: A man is found dead on a Sunday morning. His wife calls the police immediately. The police question the wife and staff. The wife said she was asleep, the cook said he was cooking breakfast, the gardener said she was picking vegetables, the butler said he was cleaning the closet, and the maid said she was getting the post. The police immediately arrested the murderer.Who was the murderer?
Answer: The maid because there's no post on Sundays.